As a Dutch I hope for Bremain, as a Brit I hope for Brexit

The opaque economic implications of Brexit make the issue of immigration increasingly important to British voters.

Published in de Volkskrant, leading national newspaper of the Netherlands, on June 18th 2016 online.

image credits: AFP

On June 23, Britain will go to the polls for Brexit, the referendum on whether Britain will remain in the EU or leave. Two themes dominate the debate: the economy and immigration.

“When the economic impact of Brexit is so difficult to gauge and gut feelings about immigrants are so strong, economic arguments are quickly overshadowed by concerns about migration.”

What is particularly remarkable about the debate in Britain is that everyone agrees that the economic consequences of Brexit will be major, but no one knows for sure what exactly that impact will be. Where Prime Minister David Cameron, who supports remaining in the EU, thought last May that the battle between Brexiteers and Remainers was a foregone conclusion - in the latter's favour - the campaign is now increasingly unfolding for Cameron like a Greek tragedy. The Brexiteers' camp is enjoying increasing support in the polls. 'Where did it go wrong?' Cameron will undoubtedly ask himself.

The golden rule of elections has always been that the party that the people think will best improve the economy gets the most votes. But now, with the Brexit referendum looming, that rule seems to no longer apply, and gut feelings about immigration are dominating the choices of many voters.

Abacus

I myself am half-British, half-Dutch. I live here [in the Netherlands], but I grew up and studied in England. I am in the U.K. several times a month for my work, and it is enlightening to follow the discussion about Brexit in both the Netherlands and the U.K. What remains underexposed in the Netherlands is that both the Yes and No camps have failed to give a clear answer to the question of what Brexit will mean for the British economy. As a result, the political debate has turned into a proverbial abacus. Supporters and opponents of Brexit do everything they can to be able to commit as many different experts and institutions to their camp as possible.

The Remainers are currently best placed in this tally: the IMF, OECD and nine top British economists indicate that leaving the EU will have a major negative impact on economic growth, employment and the income of the British population. The Brexiteers also hold their own; they have eight renowned economists on their side who argue that the British economy will actually do better without EU membership. Eleven against eight, that is the tally that lingers.

There is great uncertainty about the direct consequences that Brexit will have for the individual citizen's wallet. For example, Boris Johnson, former mayor of London and leader of the Brexiteers, keeps insisting that Great Britain loses 350 million pounds - around 440 million euros - to the EU every week. He announces this without mentioning the so-called 'rebate', a financial mechanism that reduced the United Kingdom's contribution to the EU budget. If this rebate is included in the calculation, the amount that Great Britain owes the EU every week is halved.

In the Remain camp, however, things aren’t much better. George Osborne, Chancellor of the Exchequer, claims that British households will lose £4,300 if Brexit goes ahead. He bases this on a report from his own ministry, but the same ministry refutes Osborne’s claim, stating that the statement is simply wrong.

Romantic faith

The Brexit debate has become a battle of report against report, with the discussion of the economic implications of Brexit simply no longer followable due to a dizzying array of variables. Whatever the outcome of the referendum, the British are stuck with unforeseen consequences; a worrying situation for a country that has just emerged from a deep recession.

Due to the opaque economic consequences, the issue of immigration is becoming increasingly important. The Brexiteers can therefore count on a lot of support from British citizens who are fed up with the free movement of people within the EU, and especially fed up with Eastern European migrants settling in England. Brexiteers feed this sentiment by appealing to gut feelings. When the economic impact of a Brexit is so difficult to foresee and the gut feelings about immigrants are so strong, economic arguments are quickly completely overshadowed by the unrest about migration.

As a Dutchman, I hope that the British will stay in the EU because they are our closest allies in the Union in many ways. But the Brit in me has doubts. Not because of hard facts or gut feelings, but because of a deeper sentiment. Namely, the romantic belief that the British can also make it (economically) without EU membership. Because as the apocryphal story - with which The Times once headlined: 'Fog in Channel, Continent isolated from Britain' - would have it, there is a feeling in England that the EU needs the British more than vice versa.

Jeroen van Gennep studied political economy at Oxford University and specialized in economic voting.